The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
1. It is sometimes not easy to give a clear definition of a
science at the outset, so as to set its scope and province before
the reader in a few words. In the case of those sciences
which are more immediately and directly concerned with
what are termed objects, rather than with what are termed
processes, this difficulty is not indeed so serious. If the
reader is already familiar with the objects, a simple reference
to them will give him a tolerably accurate idea of the
direction and nature of his studies. Even if he be not
familiar with them, they will still be often to some extent
connected and associated in his mind by a name, and
the mere utterance of the name may thus convey a fair
amount of preliminary information. This is more or less
the case with many of the natural sciences; we can often
tell the reader beforehand exactly what he is going to study.
But when a science is concerned, not so much with objects
directly, as with processes and laws, or when it takes for the
subject of its enquiry some comparatively obscure feature
drawn from phenomena which have little or nothing else in
common, the difficulty of giving preliminary information
becomes greater. Recognized classes of objects have then
to be disregarded and even broken up, and an entirely novel
arrangement of the objects to be made. In such cases it is
the study of the science that first gives the science its unity,
for till it is studied the objects with which it is concerned
were probably never thought of together. Here a definition
cannot be given at the outset, and the process of obtaining it
may become by comparison somewhat laborious.
The science of Probability, at least on the view taken of
it in the following pages, is of this latter description. The
reader who is at present unacquainted with the science
cannot be at once informed of its scope by a reference to
objects with which he is already familiar. He will have
to be taken in hand, as it were, and some little time
and trouble will have to be expended in directing his
attention to our subject-matter before he can be expected to
know it. To do this will be our first task.
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