The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
2. In studying Nature, in any form, we are continually
coming into possession of information which we sum up in
general propositions. Now in very many cases these general
propositions are neither more nor less certain and accurate
than the details which they embrace and of which they are
composed. We are assuming at present that the truth of
these generalizations is not disputed; as a matter of fact
they may rest on weak evidence, or they may be uncertain
from their being widely extended by induction; what is
meant is, that when we resolve them into their component
parts we have precisely the same assurance of the truth of
the details as we have of that of the whole. When I know,
for instance, that all cows ruminate, I feel just as certain
that any particular cow or cows ruminate as that the whole
class does. I may be right or wrong in my original statement,
and I may have obtained it by any conceivable mode
in which truths can be obtained; but whatever the value of
the general proposition may be, that of the particulars is
neither greater nor less. The process of inferring the particular
from the general is not accompanied by the slightest
diminution of certainty. If one of these 'immediate inferences'
is justified at all, it will be equally right in every
case.
But it is by no means necessary that this characteristic
should exist in all cases. There is a class of immediate inferences,
almost unrecognized indeed in logic, but constantly
drawn in practice, of which the characteristic is, that as they
increase in particularity they diminish in certainty. Let me
assume that I am told that _some_ cows ruminate; I cannot
infer logically from this that any particular cow does so,
though I should feel some way removed from absolute disbelief,
or even indifference to assent, upon the subject; but
if I saw a herd of cows I should feel more sure that some of
them were ruminant than I did of the single cow, and my
assurance would increase with the numbers of the herd about
which I had to form an opinion. Here then we have a class
of things as to the individuals of which we feel quite in
uncertainty, whilst as we embrace larger numbers in our
assertions we attach greater weight to our inferences. It is
with such classes of things and such inferences that the
science of Probability is concerned.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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