The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
2. Let us then conceive some one setting to work to
investigate nature, under its broadest aspect, with the view
of systematizing the facts of experience that are known, and
thence (in case he should find that this is possible) discovering
others which are at present unknown. He observes a
multitude of phenomena, physical and mental, contemporary
and successive. He enquires what connections are there
between them? what rules can be found, so that some of
these things being observed I can infer others from them?
We suppose him, let it be observed, deliberately resolving to
investigate the things themselves, and not to be turned
aside by any prior enquiry as to there being laws under
which the mind is compelled to judge of the things. This
may arise either from a disbelief in the existence of any
independent and necessary mental laws, and a consequent
conviction that the mind is perfectly competent to observe
and believe anything that experience offers, and should
believe nothing else, or simply from a preference for investigations
of the latter kind. In other words, we suppose him
to reject Formal Logic, and to apply himself to a study of
objective existences.
It must not for a moment be supposed that we are here
doing more than conceiving a fictitious case for the purpose
of more vividly setting before the reader the nature of the
inductive process, the assumptions it has to make, and the
character of the materials to which it is applied. It is not
psychologically possible that any one should come to the study
of nature with all his mental faculties in full perfection, but
void of all materials of knowledge, and free from any bias as
to the uniformities which might be found to prevail around
him. In practice, of course, the form and the matter--the
laws of belief or association, and the objects to which they
are applied--act and react upon one another, and neither
can exist in any but a low degree without presupposing the
existence of the other. But the supposition is perfectly legitimate
for the purpose of calling attention to the requirements
of such a system of Logic, and is indeed nothing more
than what has to be done at almost every step in psychological
enquiry.[1]
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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