The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
3. His task at first might be conceived to be a slow
and tedious one. It would consist of a gradual accumulation
of individual instances, as marked out from one another
by various points of distinction, and connected with one
another by points of resemblance. These would have to be
respectively distinguished and associated in the mind, and
the consequent results would then be summed up in general
propositions, from which inferences could afterwards be
drawn. These inferences could, of course, contain no new
facts, they would only be repetitions of what he or others
had previously observed. All that we should have so far
done would have been to make our classifications of things
and then to appeal to them again. We should therefore be
keeping well within the province of ordinary logic, the processes
of which (whatever their ultimate explanation) may
of course always be expressed, in accordance with Aristotle's
Dictum, as ways of determining whether or not we can show
that one given class is included wholly or partly within
another, or excluded from it, as the case may be.
4. But a very short course of observation would suggest
the possibility of a wide extension of his information.
Experience itself would soon detect that events were connected
together in a regular way; he would ascertain that
there are 'laws of nature.' Coming with no _à priori_ necessity
of believing in them, he would soon find that as a matter
of fact they do exist, though he could not feel any certainty
as to the extent of their prevalence. The discovery of this
arrangement in nature would at once alter the plan of his proceedings,
and set the tone to the whole range of his methods
of investigation. His main work now would be to find out
by what means he could best discover these laws of nature.
An illustration may assist. Suppose I were engaged in
breaking up a vast piece of rock, say slate, into small pieces.
I should begin by wearily working through it inch by inch.
But I should soon find the process completely changed owing
to the existence of _cleavage_. By this arrangement of things
a very few blows would do the work--not, as I might possibly
have at first supposed, to the extent of a few inches--but
right through the whole mass. In other words, by the
process itself of cutting, as shown in experience, and by
nothing else, a constitution would be detected in the things
that would make that process vastly more easy and extensive.
Such a discovery would of course change our tactics.
Our principal object would thenceforth be to ascertain the
extent and direction of this cleavage.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics — John Shaqi
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