The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Something resembling this is found in Induction. The
discovery of laws of nature enables the mind to dart with its
inferences from a few facts completely through a whole class
of objects, and thus to acquire results the successive individual
attainment of which would have involved long and
wearisome investigation, and would indeed in multitudes
of instances have been out of the question. We have no
demonstrative proof that this state of things is universal;
but having found it prevail extensively, we go on with the
resolution at least to try for it everywhere else, and we are
not disappointed. From propositions obtained in this way,
or rather from the original facts on which these propositions
rest, we can make _new_ inferences, not indeed with absolute
certainty, but with a degree of conviction that is of the
utmost practical use. We have gained the great step of
being able to make trustworthy generalizations. We conclude,
for instance, not merely that John and Henry die,
but that all men die.
5. The above brief investigation contains, it is hoped,
a tolerably correct outline of the nature of the Inductive
inference, as it presents itself in Material or Scientific Logic.
It involves the distinction drawn by Mill, and with which
the reader of his _System of Logic_ will be familiar, between
an inference drawn _according_ to a formula and one drawn
_from_ a formula. We do in reality make our inference from
the data afforded by experience directly to the conclusion;
it is a mere arrangement of convenience to do so by passing
through the generalization. But it is one of such extreme
convenience, and one so necessarily forced upon us when we
are appealing to our own past experience or to that of others
for the grounds of our conclusion, that practically we find it
the best plan to divide the process of inference into two
parts. The first part is concerned with establishing the
generalization; the second (which contains the rules of ordinary
logic) determines what conclusions can be drawn from
this generalization.
6. We may now see our way to ascertaining the province
of Probability and its relation to kindred sciences.
Inductive Logic gives rules for discovering such generalizations
as those spoken of above, and for testing their correctness.
If they are expressed in universal propositions it is
the part of ordinary logic to determine what inferences can
be made from and by them; if, on the other hand, they are
expressed in proportional propositions, that is, propositions
of the kind described in our first chapter, they are handed
over to Probability. We find, for example, that three infants
out of ten die in their first four years. It belongs to Induction
to say whether we are justified in generalizing our observation
into the assertion, All infants die in that proportion.
When such a proposition is obtained, whatever may be the
value to be assigned to it, we recognize in it a series of a
familiar kind, and it is at once claimed by Probability.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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