The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
In this latter case the division into two parts, the inductive
and the ratiocinative, seems decidedly more than one of
convenience; it is indeed imperatively necessary for clearness
of thought and cogency of treatment. It is true that in
almost every example that can be selected we shall find
both of the above elements existing together and combining
to determine the degree of our conviction, but when we come
to examine them closely it appears to me that the grounds
of their cogency, the kind of conviction they produce, and
consequently the rules which they give rise to, are so entirely
distinct that they cannot possibly be harmonized into
a single consistent system.
The opinion therefore according to which certain Inductive
formulæ are regarded as composing a portion of
Probability, and which finds utterance in the Rule of Succession
criticised in our last chapter, cannot, I think, be
maintained. It would be more correct to say, as stated
above, that Induction is quite distinct from Probability, yet
co-operates in almost all its inferences. By Induction we
determine, for example, whether, and how far, we can safely
generalize the proposition that four men in ten live to be
fifty-six; supposing such a proposition to be safely generalized,
we hand it over to Probability to say what sort of inferences
can be deduced from it.
7. So much then for the opinion which tends to regard
pure Induction as a subdivision of Probability. By the
majority of philosophical and logical writers a widely different
view has of course been entertained. They are mostly disposed
to distinguish these sciences very sharply from, not to
say to contrast them with, one another; the one being
accepted as philosophical or logical, and the other rejected
as mathematical. This may without offence be termed the
popular prejudice against Probability.
A somewhat different view, however, must be noticed
here, which, by a sort of reaction against the latter, seems
even to go beyond the former; and which occasionally finds
expression in the statement that all inductive reasoning of
every kind is merely a matter of Probability. Two examples
of this may be given.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
Reviews
Reviews
No reviews yet
Be the first to share your thoughts on this work.
Elsewhere in the archive
Join the Discussion
Join the discussion
Sign in to leave a comment or review.
Sign InorCreate an account