The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Beginning with the older authority, there is an often
quoted saying by Butler at the commencement of his _Analogy_,
that 'probability is the very guide of life'; a saying
which seems frequently to be understood to signify that the
rules or principles of Probability are thus all-prevalent when
we are drawing conclusions in practical life. Judging by
the drift of the context, indeed, this seems a fair interpretation
of his meaning, in so far of course as there could
be said to be any such thing as a science of Probability in
those days. Prof. Jevons, in his _Principles of Science_
(p. 197), has expressed a somewhat similar view, of course
in a way more consistent with the principles of modern
science, physical and mathematical. He says, "I am convinced
that it is impossible to expound the methods of induction
in a sound manner, without resting them on the
theory of Probability. Perfect knowledge alone can give
certainty, and in nature perfect knowledge would be infinite
knowledge, which is clearly beyond our capacities. We have,
therefore, to content ourselves with partial knowledge,--knowledge
mingled with ignorance, producing doubt."[2]
8. There are two senses in which this disposition to
merge the two sciences into one may be understood. Using
the word Probability in its vague popular signification,
nothing more may be intended than to call attention to the
fact, that in every case alike our conclusions are nothing
more than 'probable,' that is, that they are not, and cannot
be, absolutely certain. This must be fully admitted, for of
course no one acquainted with the complexity of physical
and other evidence would seriously maintain that absolute
ideal certainty can be attained in any branch of applied
logic. Hypothetical certainty, in abstract science, may be
possible, but not absolute certainty in the domain of the
concrete. This has been already noticed in a former chapter,
where, however, it was pointed out that whatever justification
may exist, on the subjective view of logic, for regarding
this common prevalence of absence of certainty as warranting
us in fusing the sciences into one, no such justification is
admitted when we take the objective view.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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