The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
9. What may be meant, however, is that the _grounds_
of this absence of certainty are always of the same general
character. This argument, if admitted, would have real
force, and must therefore be briefly noticed. We have seen
abundantly that when we say of a conclusion within the
strict province of Probability, that it is not certain, all that
we mean is that in some proportion of cases only will such
conclusion be right, in the other cases it will be wrong.
Now when we say, in reference to any inductive conclusion,
that we feel uncertain about its absolute cogency, are we
conscious of the same interpretation? It seems to me that
we are not. It is indeed quite possible that on ultimate
analysis it might be proved that experience of failure in
the past employment of our methods of investigation was
the main cause of our present want of perfect confidence in
them. But this, as we have repeatedly insisted, does not
belong to the province of logical, but to that of Psychological
enquiry. It is surely not the case that we are, as a rule,
consciously guided by such occasional or repeated instances
of past failure. In so far as they are at all influential, they
seem to do their work by infusing a vague want of confidence
which cannot be referred to any statistical grounds for
its justification, at least not in a quantitative way. Part of
our want of confidence is derived sympathetically from those
who have investigated the matter more nearly at first hand.
Here again, analysis might detect that a given proportion of
past failures lay at the root of the distrust, but it does not
show at the surface. Moreover, one reason why we cannot
feel perfectly certain about our inductions is, that the
_memory_ has to be appealed to for some of our data; and will
any one assert that the only reason why we do not place
absolute reliance on our memory of events long past is that
we have been deceived in that way before?
In any other sense, therefore, than as a needful protest
against attaching too great demonstrative force to the conclusions
of Inductive Logic, it seems decidedly misleading to
speak of its reasonings as resting upon Probability.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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