The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
At first sight the answer to this question may seem to be
obtained by a very simple process, viz. by counting how
many men of the age of John Smith, respectively do and do
not live for eleven years. In reality however the process is
far from being so simple as it appears. For it must be remembered
that each individual thing has not one distinct
and appropriate class or group, to which, and to which alone,
it properly belongs. We may indeed be practically in the
habit of considering it under such a single aspect, and it may
therefore seem to us more familiar when it occupies a place
in one series rather than in another; but such a practice is
merely customary on our part, not obligatory. It is obvious
that every individual thing or event has an indefinite
number of properties or attributes observable in it, and
might therefore be considered as belonging to an indefinite
number of different classes of things. By belonging to any
one class it of course becomes at the same time a member of
all the higher classes, the genera, of which that class was a
species. But, moreover, by virtue of each accidental attribute
which it possesses, it becomes a member of a class
intersecting, so to say, some of the other classes. John Smith
is a consumptive man say, and a native of a northern climate.
Being a man he is of course included in the class of vertebrates,
also in that of animals, as well as in any higher
such classes that there may be. The property of being consumptive
refers him to another class, narrower than any of
the above; whilst that of being born in a northern climate
refers him to a new and distinct class, not conterminous with
any of the rest, for there are things born in the north which
are not men.
13. When therefore John Smith presents himself to
our notice without, so to say, any particular label attached to
him informing us under which of his various aspects he is to
be viewed, the process of thus referring him to a class becomes
to a great extent arbitrary. If he had been indicated
to us by a general name, that, of course, would have been
some clue; for the name having a determinate connotation
would specify at any rate a fixed group of attributes within
which our selection was to be confined. But names and
attributes being connected together, we are here supposed
to be just as much in ignorance what name he is to be
called by, as what group out of all his innumerable attributes
is to be taken account of; for to tell us one of these things
would be precisely the same in effect as to tell us the other.
In saying that it is thus arbitrary under which class he is
placed, we mean, of course, that there are no logical grounds
of decision; the selection must be determined by some extraneous
considerations. Mere inspection of the individual
would simply show us that he could equally be referred
to an indefinite number of classes, but would in itself give
no inducement to prefer, for our special purpose, one of these
classes to another.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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