The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
In speaking of the effect of the average in thus diminishing
the irregularities which present themselves in the details,
the attention of the student must be prominently directed to
the point, that it is not the _absolute_ but the _relative_ irregularities
which thus tend to diminish without limit. This
idea will be familiar enough to the mathematician, but to
others it may require some reflection in order to grasp it
clearly. The absolute divergences and irregularities, so far
from diminishing, show a disposition to increase, and this (it
may be) without limit, though their relative importance shows
a corresponding disposition to diminish without limit. Thus
in the case of tossing a penny, if we take a few throws, say
ten, it is decidedly unlikely that there should be a difference
of six between the numbers of heads and tails; that is, that
there should be as many as eight heads and therefore as few
as two tails, or _vice versâ_. But take a thousand throws, and
it becomes in turn exceedingly likely that there should be
as much as, or more than, a difference of six between the
respective numbers. On the other hand the _proportion_ of
heads to tails in the case of the thousand throws will be very
much nearer to unity, in most cases, than when we only took
ten. In other words, the longer a game of chance continues
the larger are the spells and runs of luck in themselves, but
the less their relative proportions to the whole amounts
involved.
4. In speaking as above of events or things as to the
details of which we know little or nothing, it is not of course
implied that our ignorance about them is complete and universal,
or, what comes to the same thing, that irregularity
may be observed in all their qualities. All that is meant is
that there are _some_ qualities or marks in them, the existence
of which we are not able to predicate with certainty in the
individuals. With regard to all their other qualities there
may be the utmost uniformity, and consequently the most
complete certainty. The irregularity in the length of human
life is notorious, but no one doubts the existence of such
organs as a heart and brains in any person whom he happens
to meet. And even in the qualities in which the irregularity
is observed, there are often, indeed generally, positive limits
within which it will be found to be confined. No person,
for instance, can calculate what may be the length of any
particular life, but we feel perfectly certain that it will not
stretch out to 150 years. The irregularity of the individual
instances is only shown in certain respects, as e.g. the length
of the life, and even in these respects it has its limits. The
same remark will apply to most of the other examples with
which we shall be concerned. The disorder in fact is not
universal and unlimited, it only prevails in certain directions
and up to certain points.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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