The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Let us suppose that we toss up a penny a great many
times; the results of the successive throws may be conceived
to form a series. The separate throws of this series seem to
occur in utter disorder; it is this disorder which causes our
uncertainty about them. Sometimes head comes, sometimes
tail comes; sometimes there is a repetition of the same face,
sometimes not. So long as we confine our observation to a
few throws at a time, the series seems to be simply chaotic.
But when we consider the result of a long succession we find
a marked distinction; a kind of order begins gradually to
emerge, and at last assumes a distinct and striking aspect.
We find in this case that the heads and tails occur in about
equal numbers, that similar repetitions of different faces do
so also, and so on. In a word, notwithstanding the individual
disorder, an aggregate order begins to prevail. So again if
we are examining the length of human life, the different lives
which fall under our notice compose a series presenting the
same features. The length of a single life is familiarly uncertain,
but the average duration of a batch of lives is becoming
in an almost equal degree familiarly certain. The
larger the number we take out of any mixed crowd, the
clearer become the symptoms of order, the more nearly will
the average length of each selected class be the same.
These few cases will serve as simple examples of a property
of things which can be traced almost everywhere, to a
greater or less extent, throughout the whole field of our experience.
Fires, shipwrecks, yields of harvest, births, marriages,
suicides; it scarcely seems to matter what feature we
single out for observation.[1] The irregularity of the single
instances diminishes when we take a large number, and at
last seems for all practical purposes to disappear.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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