The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
There are certain phrases so commonly adopted as to
have become part of the technical vocabulary of the subject,
such as an 'event' and the 'way in which it can
happen.' Thus the act of throwing a penny would be called
an event, and the fact of its giving head or tail would be
called the way in which the event happened. If we were
discussing tables of mortality, the former term would denote
the mere fact of death, the latter the age at which
it occurred, or the way in which it was brought about,
or whatever else in it might be the particular circumstance
under discussion. This phraseology is very convenient, and
will often be made use of in this work, but without explanation
it may lead to confusion. For in many cases the
way in which the event happens is of such great relative
importance, that according as it happens in one way or
another the event would have a different name; in other
words, it would not in the two cases be nominally the same
event. The phrase therefore will have to be considerably
stretched before it will conveniently cover all the cases to
which we may have to apply it. If for instance we were
contemplating a series of human beings, male and female,
it would sound odd to call their humanity an event, and
their sex the way in which the event happened.
If we recur however to any of the classes of objects
already referred to, we may see our path towards obtaining
a more accurate conception of what we want. It will easily
be seen that in every one of them there is a mixture of
similarity and dissimilarity; there is a series of events
which have a certain number of features or attributes in
common,--without this they would not be classed together.
But there is also a distinction existing amongst them; a
certain number of other attributes are to be found in some
and are not to be found in others. In other words, the
individuals which form the series are compound, each being
made up of a collection of things or attributes; some of
these things exist in all the members of the series, others
are found in some only. So far there is nothing peculiar
to the science of Probability; that in which the distinctive
characteristic consists is this;--that the occasional attributes,
as distinguished from the permanent, are found on
an extended examination to tend to exist _in a certain definite
proportion of the whole number of cases_. We cannot tell in
any given instance whether they will be found or not, but
as we go on examining more cases we find a growing uniformity.
We find that the proportion of instances in which
they are found to instances in which they are wanting, is
gradually subject to less and less comparative variation, and
approaches continually towards some apparently fixed value.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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