The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Let us take, for example, the average duration of life.
This, provided our data are sufficiently extensive, is known to
be tolerably regular and uniform. This fact has been already
indicated in the preceding sections, and is a truth indeed
of which the popular mind has a tolerably clear grasp at the
present day. But a very little consideration will show that
there may be a superior as well as an inferior limit to
the extent within which this uniformity can be observed;
in other words whilst we may fall into error by taking too
few instances we may also fail in our aim, though in a very
different way and from quite different reasons, by taking too
many. At the present time the average duration of life in
England may be, say, forty years; but a century ago it was
decidedly less; several centuries ago it was presumably very
much less; whilst if we possessed statistics referring to a still
earlier population of the country we should probably find that
there has been since that time a still more marked improvement.
What may be the future tendency no man can say for
certain. It may be, and we hope that it will be the case,
that owing to sanitary and other improvements, the duration
of life will go on increasing steadily; it is at least conceivable,
though doubtless incredible, that it should do so without
limit. On the other hand, and with much more likelihood,
this duration might gradually tend towards some fixed
length. Or, again, it is perfectly possible that future generations
might prefer a short and a merry life, and therefore
reduce their average longevity. The duration of life cannot
but depend to some extent upon the general tastes, habits
and employments of the people, that is upon the ideal which
they consciously or unconsciously set before them, and he would
be a rash man who should undertake to predict what this ideal
will be some centuries hence. All that it is here necessary
however to indicate is, that this particular uniformity (as we
have hitherto called it, in order to mark its relative character)
has varied, and, under the influence of future eddies
in opinion and practice, may vary still; and this to any
extent, and with any degree of irregularity. To borrow a
term from Astronomy, we find our uniformity subject to what
might be called an irregular _secular_ variation.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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