The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
11. The above is a fair typical instance. If we had
taken a less simple feature than the length of life, or one
less closely connected with what may be called by comparison
the great permanent uniformities of nature, we should
have found the peculiarity under notice exhibited in a far
more striking degree. The deaths from small-pox, for example,
or the instances of duelling or accusations of witchcraft,
if examined during a few successive decades, might
have shown a very tolerable degree of uniformity. But these
uniformities have risen possibly from zero; after various and
very great fluctuations seem tending towards zero again, at
least in this century; and may, for anything we know, undergo
still more rapid fluctuations in future. Now these
examples must be regarded as being only extreme ones, and
not such very extreme ones, of what is the almost universal
rule in nature. I shall endeavour to show that even the few
apparent exceptions, such as the proportions between male
and female births, &c., may not be, and probably in reality
are not, strictly speaking, exceptions. A type, that is, which
shall be in the fullest sense of the words, persistent and
invariable is scarcely to be found in nature. The full import
of this conclusion will be seen in future chapters. Attention
is only directed here to the important inference that, although
statistics are notoriously of no value unless they are in sufficient
numbers, yet it does not follow but that in certain cases
we may have too many of them. If they are made too extensive,
they may again fall short, at least for any particular
time or place, of their greatest attainable accuracy.
12. These natural uniformities then are found at
length to be subject to fluctuation. Now contrast with them
any of the uniformities afforded by games of chance; these
latter seem to show no trace of secular fluctuation, however
long we may continue our examination of them. Criticisms
will be offered, in the course of the following chapters, upon
some of the common attempts to prove _à priori_ that there
must be this fixity in the uniformity in question, but of its
existence there can scarcely be much doubt. Pence give
heads and tails about equally often now, as they did when
they were first tossed, and as we believe they will continue
to do, so long as the present order of things continues. The
fixity of these uniformities may not be as absolute as is
commonly supposed, but no amount of experience which we
need take into account is likely in any appreciable degree to
interfere with them. Hence the obvious contrast, that,
whereas natural uniformities at length fluctuate, those afforded
by games of chance seem fixed for ever.
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