The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
It follows, therefore, that modality in the old sense of the
word, wherein an attempt was made to obtain certain natural
divisions in the scale of conviction, must be finally abandoned.
All that it endeavoured to do can now be done incomparably
better by the theory of Probability, with its numerical scale
which admits of indefinite subdivision. None of the old systems
of division can be regarded as a really natural one;
those which admit but few divisions being found to leave the
whole range of the probable in one unbroken class, and those
which adopt many divisions lapsing into unavoidable vagueness
and uncertainty.
21. Corresponding to the distinction between pure
and modal propositions, but even more complicated and
unsatisfactory in its treatment, was that between pure and
modal syllogisms. The thing discussed in the case of the
latter was, of course, the effect produced upon the conclusion
in respect of modality, by the modal affection of one or both
premises. It is only when we reach such considerations as
these that we are at all getting on to the ground appropriate
to Probability; but it is obvious that very little could be
done with such rude materials, and the inherent clumsiness
and complication of the whole modal system come out very
clearly here. It was in reference probably to this complication
that some of the bitter sayings[15] of the schoolmen and
others which have been recorded, were uttered.
Aristotle has given an intricate investigation of this subject,
and his followers naturally were led along a similar
track. It would be quite foreign to my purpose in the slight
sketch in this chapter to attempt to give any account of
these enquiries, even were I competent to do so; for, as has
been pointed out, the connection between the Aristotelian
modals and the modern view of the nature of Probability,
though real, is exceedingly slight. It need only be remarked
that what was complicated enough with four modals to be
taken account of, grows intricate beyond all endurance when
such as the 'probable' and the 'true' and the 'false' have
also to be assigned a place in the list. The following examples[16]
will show the kind of discussions with which the logicians
exercised themselves. 'Whether, with one premise
certain, and the other probable, a certain conclusion may be
inferred': 'Whether, from the impossible, the necessary can
be inferred'; 'Whether, with one premise necessary and the
other _de inesse_, the conclusion is necessary', and so on,
endlessly.
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