The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
22. On the Kantian view of modality the discussion
of such kinds of syllogisms becomes at once decidedly more
simple (for here but three modes are recognized), and also
somewhat more closely connected with strict Probability, (for
the modes are more nearly of the nature of gradations of
conviction). But, on the other hand, there is less justification
for their introduction, as logicians might really be expected
to know that what they are aiming to effect by their clumsy
contrivances is the very thing which Probability can carry
out to the highest desired degree of accuracy. The former
methods are as coarse and inaccurate, compared with the
latter, as were the roughest measurements of Babylonian
night-watchers compared with the refined calculations of the
modern astronomer. It is indeed only some of the general
adherents of the Kantian Logic who enter upon any such
considerations as these; some, such as Hamilton and Mansel,
entirely reject them, as we have seen. By those who do
treat of the subject, such conclusions as the following are laid
down; that when both premises are apodeictic the conclusion
will be the same; so when both are assertory or problematic.
If one is apodeictic and the other assertory, the latter, or
'weaker,' is all that is to be admitted for the conclusion;
and so on. The English reader will find some account of
these rules in Ueberweg's _Logic_.[17]
23. But although those modals, regarded as instruments
of accurate thought, have been thus superseded by the
precise arithmetical expressions of Probability, the question
still remains whether what may be termed our popular modal
expressions could not be improved and adapted to more
accurate use. It is true that the attempt to separate them
from one another by any fundamental distinctions is futile,
for the magnitude of which they take cognizance is, as we
have remarked, continuous; but considering the enormous
importance of accurate terminology, and of recognizing
numerical distinctions wherever possible, it would be a real
advance if any agreement could be arrived at with regard to
the use of modal expressions. We have already noticed (Ch. II. §16)
some suggestions by Mr Galton as to the possibility
of a natural system of classification, resting upon the regularity
with which most kinds of magnitudes tend to group
themselves about a mean. It might be proposed, for instance,
that we should agree to apply the term 'good'
to the first quarter, measuring from the best downwards;
'indifferent' to the middle half, and 'bad' to the last quarter.
There seems no reason why a similarly improved terminology
should not some day be introduced into the ordinary modal
language of common life. It might be agreed, for instance,
that 'very improbable' should as far as possible be confined
to those events which had odds of (say) more than 99 to 1
against them; and so on, with other similar expressions.
There would, no doubt, be difficulties in the way, for in all
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