The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
applications of classification we have to surmount the two-fold
obstacles which lie in the way, firstly (to use Kant's
expression) of the faculty of making rules, and secondly of
that of subsumption under rules. That is to say, even if we
had agreed upon our classes, there would still be much doubt
and dispute, in the case of things which did not readily lend
themselves to be counted or measured, as to whether the
odds were more or less than the assigned quantity.
It is true that when we know the odds for or against an
event, we can always state them explicitly without the necessity
of first agreeing as to the usage of terms which shall
imply them. But there would often be circumlocution and
pedantry in so doing, and as long as modal terms are in
practical use it would seem that there could be no harm, and
might be great good, in arriving at some agreement as to the
degree of probability which they should be generally understood
to indicate. Bentham, as is well known, in despair of
ever obtaining anything accurate out of the language of common
life on this subject, was in favour of a direct appeal to
the numerical standard. He proposed the employment, in
judicial trials, of an instrument, graduated from 0 to 10, on
which scale the witness was to be asked to indicate the degree
of his belief of the facts to which he testified: similarly
the judge might express the force with which he held his
conclusion. The use of such a numerical scale, however, was
to be optional only, not compulsory, as Bentham admitted
that many persons might feel at a loss thus to measure the
degree of their belief. (_Rationale of Judicial Evidence_,
Bk. I., Ch. VI.)
24. Throughout this chapter we have regarded the
modals as the nearest counterpart to modern Probability
which was afforded by the old systems of logic. The reason
for so regarding them is, that they represented some slight
attempt, rude as it was, to recognize and measure certain
gradations in the degree of our conviction, and to examine
the bearing of such considerations upon our logical inferences.
But although it is amongst the modals that the germs of
the methods of Probability are thus to be sought; the true
subject-matter of our science, that is, the classes of objects
with which it is most appropriately concerned, are rather
represented by another part of the scholastic logic. This
was the branch commonly called Dialectic, in the old sense
of that term. Dialectic, according to Aristotle, seems to
have been a sort of sister art to Rhetoric. It was concerned
with syllogisms differing in no way from demonstrative syllogisms,
except that their premises were probable instead of
certain. Premises of this kind he termed topics, and the
syllogisms which dealt with them enthymemes. They were
said to start from 'signs and likelihoods' rather than from
axioms.[18]
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