The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
25. The terms in which such reasonings are commonly
described sound very much like those applicable to
Probability, as we now understand it. When we hear of
likelihood, and of probable syllogisms, our first impression
might be that the inferences involved would be of a similar
character.[19] This, however, would be erroneous. In the
first place the province of this Dialectic was much too wide,
for it covered in addition the whole field of what we should
now term Scientific or Material Induction. The distinctive
characteristic of the dialectic premises was their want of
certainty, and of such uncertain premises Probability (as I
have frequently insisted) takes account of one class only,
Induction concerning itself with another class. Again, not the
slightest attempt was made to enter upon the enquiry, _How_
uncertain are the premises? It is only when this is attempted
that we can be considered to enter upon the field of
Probability, and it is because, after a rude fashion, the modals
attempted to grapple with this problem, that we have regarded
them as in any way occupied with our special subject-matter.
26. Amongst the older logics with which I have made
any acquaintance, that of Crackanthorpe gives the fullest discussion
upon this subject. He divides his treatment of the
syllogism into two parts, occupied respectively with the 'demonstrative'
and the 'probable' syllogism. To the latter a
whole book is devoted. In this the nature and consequences
of thirteen different 'loci'[20] are investigated, though it is not
very clear in what sense they can every one of them be regarded
as being 'probable.'
It is doubtless true, that if the old logicians had been
in possession of such premises as modern Probability is concerned
with, and had adhered to their own way of treating
them, they would have had to place them amongst such _loci_,
and thus to make the consideration of them a part of their
Dialectic. But inasmuch as there does not seem to have
been the slightest attempt on their part to do more here
than recognize the _fact_ of the premises being probable; that
is, since it was not attempted to _measure_ their probability
and that of the conclusion, I cannot but regard this part of
Logic as having only the very slightest relation to Probability
as now conceived. It seems to me little more than
one of the ways (described at the commencement of this
chapter) by which the problem of Modality is not indeed rejected,
but practically evaded.
27. As Logic is not the only science which is directly
and prominently occupied with questions about belief and
evidence, so the difficulties which have arisen there have
been by no means unknown elsewhere. In respect of the
modals, this seems to have been manifestly the case in Jurisprudence.
Some remarks, therefore, may be conveniently
made here upon this application of the subject, though of
course with the brevity suitable on the part of a layman who
has to touch upon professional topics.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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