The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
29. In the above we are reminded rather of modal
syllogisms. The principal practical form in which the difficulty
underlying the simple modal propositions presents
itself, is in the attempt to obtain some criterion of judicial
certainty. By 'certainty' here we mean, of course, not what
the metaphysicians term apodeictic,[23] for that can seldom or
never be secured in practical affairs, but such a degree of
conviction, short of this, as every reasonable person will feel
to be sufficient for all his wants. Here again, one would
think, the quest must appear, to accurate thinkers, an utterly
hopeless one; an effort to discover natural breaks in a continuous
magnitude. There cannot indeed be the least doubt
that, amongst limited classes of keen and practised intellects,
a standard of certainty, as of everything else, might be retained
and handed down with considerable accuracy: this is
possible in matters of taste and opinion where personal peculiarities
of judgment are far more liable to cause disagreement
and confusion. But then such a consensus is almost entirely
an affair of tact and custom; whereas what is wanted in the
case in question is some criterion to which the comparatively
uninitiated may be able to appeal. The standard, therefore,
must not merely be retained by recollection, but be generally
recognizable by its characteristics. If such a criterion could
be secured, its importance could hardly be overrated. But
so far as one may judge from the speeches of counsel, the
charges of judges, and the verdicts of juries, nothing really
deserving the name is ever attained.
30. The nearest approach, perhaps, to a recognized
standard is to be found in the frequent assurance that juries
are not bound to convict only in case they have _no_ doubt of
the guilt of the accused; for the absolute exclusion of all
doubt, the utter impossibility of suggesting any counter
hypothesis which this assumes, is unattainable in human
affairs. But, it is frequently said, they are to convict if
they have no 'reasonable doubt,' no such doubt, that is,
as would be 'a hindrance to acting in the important affairs
of life.' As a caution against seeking after unattainable
certainty, such advice may be very useful; but it need
hardly be remarked that the certainty upon which we act in
the important affairs of life is no fixed standard, but varies
exceedingly according to the nature of those affairs. The
greater the reward at stake, the greater the risk we are
prepared to run, and conversely. Hardly any degree of certainty
can exist, upon the security of which we should not
be prepared to act under appropriate circumstances.[24]
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