The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
The common form of objection is given in the reply, that
so far from paying an infinite sum, no sensible man would
give anything approaching to £50 for such a chance. Probably
not, because no man would see enough of the series to
make it worth his while. What most persons form their
practical opinion upon, is such small portions of the series
as they have actually seen or can reasonably expect. Now
in any such portion, say one which embraces 100 turns, the
longest succession of heads would not amount on the average
to more than seven or eight. This is observed, but it is forgotten
that the formula which produced these, would, if it
had greater scope, keep on producing better and better ones
without any limit. Hence it arises that some persons are
perplexed, because the conduct they would adopt, in reference
to the curtailed portion of the series which they are practically
likely to meet with, does not find its justification in inferences
which are necessarily based upon the series in the completeness
of its infinitude.
16. This will be more clearly seen by considering the
various possibilities, and the scope required in order to exhaust
them, when we confine ourselves to a _limited_ number of
throws. Begin with three. This yields eight equally likely
possibilities. In four of these cases the thrower starts with
tail and therefore loses: in two he gains a single point
(i.e. £1); in one he gains two points, and in one he gains four
points. Hence his total gain being eight pounds achieved in
four different contingencies, his average gain would be two
pounds.
Now suppose he be allowed to go as far as n throws, so
that we have to contemplate 2^{n} possibilities. All of these
have to be taken into account if we wish to consider what
happens on the average. It will readily be seen that, when
all the possible cases have been reckoned once, his total gain
will be (reckoned in pounds),
2^{n-2} + 2^{n-3}·2 + 2^{n-4}·2^{2} + ... + 2·2^{n-3} + 2^{n-2} + 2^{n-1},
viz.
(n + 1) 2^{n-2}.
This being spread over 2^{n-1} different occasions of gain his
average gain will be 1/2 (n + 1).
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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