The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
The problem may be stated thus:--a penny is tossed up;
if it gives head I receive one pound; if heads twice running
two pounds; if heads three times running four pounds, and
so on; the amount to be received doubling every time that
a fresh head succeeds. That is, I am to go on as long as it
continues to give a succession of heads, to regard this succession
as a 'turn' or set, and then take another turn, and so
on; and for each such turn I am to receive a payment; the
occurrence of tail being understood to yield nothing, in fact
being omitted from our consideration. However many times
head may be given in succession, the number of pounds I
may claim is found by raising two to a power one less
than that number of times. Here then is a series formed by
a succession of throws. We will assume,--what many persons
will consider to admit of demonstration, and what
certainly experience confirms within considerable limits,--that
the rarity of these 'runs' of the same face is in direct
proportion to the amount I receive for them when they do
occur. In other words, if we regard only the occasions on
which I receive payments, we shall find that every other
time I get one pound, once in four times I get two pounds,
once in eight times four pounds, and so on without any end.
The question is then asked, what ought I to pay for this
privilege? At the risk of a slight anticipation of the results
of a subsequent chapter, we may assume that this is equivalent
to asking, what amount paid each time would on the
average leave me neither winner nor loser? In other words,
what is the average amount I should receive on the above
terms? Theory pronounces that I ought to give an _infinite_
sum: that is, no finite sum, however great, would be an
adequate equivalent. And this is really quite intelligible.
There is a series of indefinite length before me, and the
longer I continue to work it the richer are my returns, and
this without any limit whatever. It is true that the very
rich hauls are extremely rare, but still they do come, and
when they come they make it up by their greater richness.
On every occasion on which people have devoted themselves
to the pursuit in question, they made acquaintance, of course,
with but a limited portion of this series; but the series on
which we base our calculation is unlimited; and the inferences
usually drawn as to the sum which ought in the long
run to be paid for the privilege in question are in perfect
accordance with this supposition.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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