The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Interesting and valuable, however, as are Quetelet's statistical
investigations (and much of the importance now
deservedly attached to such enquiries is, perhaps, owing
more to his efforts than to those of any other person), I cannot
but feel convinced that there is much in what he has
written upon the subject which is erroneous and confusing as
regards the foundations of the science of Probability, and the
philosophical questions which it involves. These errors are
not by any means confined to him, but for various reasons
they will be better discussed in the form of a criticism of his
explicit or implicit expression of them, than in any more independent
way.
3. In the first place then, he always, or almost always,
assumes that there can be but one and the same law of arrangement
for the results of our observations, measurements,
and so on, in these statistical enquiries. That is, he assumes
that whenever we get a group of such magnitudes
clustering about a mean, and growing less frequent as
they depart from that mean, we shall find that this diminution
of frequency takes place according to one invariable
law, whatever may be the nature of these magnitudes,
and whatever the process by which they may have
been obtained.
That such a uniformity as this should prevail amongst
many and various classes of phenomena would probably seem
surprising in any case. But the full significance of such a
fact as this (if indeed it were a fact) only becomes apparent
when attention is directed to the profound distinctions in the
nature and origin of the phenomena which are thus supposed
to be harmonized by being brought under one comprehensive
principle. This will be better appreciated if we take a brief
glance at some of the principal classes into which the things
with which Probability is chiefly concerned may be divided.
These are of a three-fold kind.
4. In the first place there are the various combinations,
and runs of luck, afforded by games of chance. Suppose
a handful, consisting of ten coins, were tossed up a
great many times in succession, and the results were tabulated.
What we should obtain would be something of the
following kind. In a certain proportion of cases, and these
the most numerous of all, we should find that we got five
heads and five tails; in a somewhat less proportion of cases
we should have, as equally frequent results, four heads six
tails, and four tails six heads; and so on in a continually
diminishing proportion until at length we came down, in a
very small relative number of cases, to nine heads one tail,
and nine tails one head; whilst the least frequent results
possible would be those which gave all heads or all tails.[3]
Here the statistical elements under consideration are, as
regards their origin at any rate, optional or brought about
by human choice. They would, therefore, be commonly
described as being mainly artificial, but their results ultimately
altogether a matter of chance.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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