The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Again, in the second place, we might take the accurate
measurements--i.e. the actual magnitudes themselves,--of
a great many natural objects, belonging to the same genus
or class; such as the cases, already referred to, of the heights,
or other characteristics of the inhabitants of any district.
Here human volition or intervention of any kind seem to
have little or nothing to do with the matter. It is optional
with us to _collect_ the measures, but the things measured are
quite outside our control. They would therefore be commonly
described as being altogether the production of nature,
and it would not be supposed that in strictness chance had
anything whatever to do with the matter.
In the third place, the result at which we are aiming
may be some fixed magnitude, one and the same in each
of our successive attempts, so that if our measurements
were rigidly accurate we should merely obtain the same
result repeated over and over again. But since all our
methods of attaining our aims are practically subject to
innumerable imperfections, the results actually obtained
will depart more or less, in almost every case, from the
real and fixed value which we are trying to secure. They
will be sometimes more wide of the mark, sometimes less
so, the worse attempts being of course the less frequent.
If a man aims at a target he will seldom or never hit it
precisely in the centre, but his good shots will be more[4]
numerous than his bad ones. Here again, then, we have
a series of magnitudes (i.e. the deflections of the shots from
the point aimed at) clustering about a mean, but produced
in a very different way from those of the last two cases.
In this instance the elements would be commonly regarded
as only partially the results of human volition, and chance
therefore as being only a co-agent in the effects produced.
With these must be classed what may be called _estimates_,
as distinguished from measurements. By the latter are
generally understood the results of a certain amount of
mechanism or manipulation; by the former we may understand
those cases in which the magnitude in question is
determined by direct observation or introspection. The
interest and importance of this class, so far as scientific
principles are concerned, dates mainly from the investigations
of Fechner. Its chief field is naturally to be found amongst
psychological data.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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