The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
We are speaking here, it must be understood, only of
_symmetrical_ curves: if there is asymmetry, i.e. if the Law of
Error is different on different sides of the mean,--a comparatively
very small number of observations would suffice
to detect the fact. But, granted symmetry and rapid
decrease of frequency on each side of the mean, we could
generally select some one species of the exponential curve
which should pretty closely represent our statistics in the
neighbourhood of the mean. That is, where the statistics are
numerous we could secure agreement; and where we could
not secure agreement the statistics would be comparatively
so scarce that we should have to continue the observations
for a very long time in order to prove the disagreement.
6. Allowing the various statistics such credit as they
deserve, for their extent, appropriateness, accuracy and so
on, the general conclusion which will on the whole be drawn
by almost every one who takes the trouble to consult them,
is that they do, in large part, conform approximately to one
type or law, at any rate for all except the extreme values.
So much as this must be fully admitted. But that they do
not, indeed we may say that they cannot, always do so in
the case of the extreme values, will become obvious on
a little consideration. In some of the classes of things to
which the law is supposed to apply, for example, the successions
of heads and tails in the throws of a penny, there is
no limit to the magnitude of the fluctuations which may and
will occur. Postulate as long a succession of heads or of tails
as we please, and if we could only live and toss long enough
for it we should succeed in getting it at length. In other
cases, including many of the applications of Probability
to natural phenomena, there can hardly fail to be such
limits. Deviations exceeding a certain range may not be
merely improbable, that is of very rare occurrence, but they
may often from the nature of the case be actually impossible.
And even when they are not actually impossible it
may frequently appear on examination that they are only
rendered possible by the occasional introduction of agencies
which are not supposed to be available in the production
of the more ordinary or intermediate values. When, for
instance, we are making observations with any kind of
instrument, the nature of its construction may put an
absolute limit upon the possible amount of error. And even
if there be not an absolute limit under all kinds of usage
it may nevertheless be the case that there is one under
fair and proper usage; it being the case that only when
the instrument is designedly or carelessly tampered with will
any new causes of divergence be introduced which were not
confined within the old limits.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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