The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Other classes of things, besides those alluded to above,
might readily be given. These however are the classes about
which the most extensive statistics are obtainable, or to
which the most practical importance and interest are attached.
The profound distinctions which separate their
origin and character are obvious. If they all really did
display precisely the same law of variation it would be a
most remarkable fact, pointing doubtless to some deep-seated
identity underlying the various ways, apparently
so widely distinct, in which they had been brought about.
The questions now to be discussed are: Is it the case,
with any considerable degree of rigour, that only one law
of distribution does really prevail? and, in so far as this
is so, how does it come to pass?
5. In support of an affirmative answer to the former
of these two questions, several different kinds of proof are,
or might be, offered.
(I.) For one plan we may make a direct appeal to
experience, by collecting sets of statistics and observing
what is their law of distribution. As remarked above, this
has been done in a great variety of cases, and in some
instances to a very considerable extent, by Quetelet and
others. His researches have made it abundantly convincing
that many classes of things and processes, differing widely
in their nature and origin, do nevertheless appear to conform
with a considerable degree of accuracy to one and the
same[5] law. At least this is made plain for the more
central values, for those that is which are situated most
nearly about the mean. With regard to the extreme values
there is, on the other hand, some difficulty. For instance
in the arrangements of the heights of a number of men,
these extremes are rather a stumbling-block; indeed it has
been proposed to reject them from both ends of the scale
on the plea that they are monstrosities, the fact being that
their relative numbers do not seem to be by any means
those which theory would assign.[6] Such a plan of rejection
is however quite unauthorized, for these dwarfs and giants
are born into the world like their more normally sized
brethren, and have precisely as much right as any others
to be included in the formulæ we draw up.
Besides the instance of the heights of men, other classes
of observations of a somewhat similar character have been
already referred to as collected and arranged by Quetelet.
From the nature of the case, however, there are not many
appropriate ones at hand; for when our object is, not to
illustrate a law which can be otherwise proved, but to
obtain actual direct proof of it, the collection of observations
and measurements ought to be made upon such a large
scale as to deter any but the most persevering computers
from undergoing the requisite labour. Some of the remarks
made in the course of the note on the opposite page will
serve to illustrate the difficulties which would lie in the way
of such a mode of proof.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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