With regard to the remarks in the last few paragraphs, prominent exceptions must be made in the case of two recent works at least.[1] The first of these is Professor de Morgan's _Formal Logic_. He has there given an investigation into the foundations of Probability as conceived by him, and nothing can be more complete and precise than his statement of principles, and his deductions from them. If I could at all agree with these principles there would have been no necessity for the following essay, as I could not hope to add anything to their foundation, and should be far indeed from rivalling his lucid statement of them. But in his scheme Probability is regarded very much from the Conceptualist point of view; as stated in the preface, he considers that Probability is concerned with formal inferences in which the premises are entertained with a conviction short of absolute certainty. With this view I cannot agree. As I have entered into criticism of some points of his scheme in one of the following chapters, and shall have occasion frequently to refer to his work, I need say no more about it here. The other work to which I refer is the profound _Laws of Thought_ of the late Professor Boole, to which somewhat similar remarks may in part be applied. Owing however to his peculiar treatment of the subject, I have scarcely anywhere come into contact with any of his expressed opinions. The view of the province of Probability adopted in this Essay differs so radically from that of most other writers on the subject, and especially from that of those just referred to, that I have thought it better, as regards details, to avoid all criticism of the opinions of others, except where conflict was unavoidable. With regard to that radical difference itself Bacon's remark applies, behind which I must shelter myself from any change of presumption.--"Quod ad universalem istam reprehensionem attinet, certissimum vere est rem reputanti, eam et magis probabilem esse et magis modestam, quam si facta fuisset ex parte." Almost the only writer who seems to me to have expressed a just view of the nature and foundation of the rules of Probability is Mr Mill, in his _System of Logic_.[2] His treatment of the subject is however very brief, and a considerable portion of the space which he has devoted to it is occupied by the discussion of one or two special examples. There are moreover some errors, as it seems to me, in what he has written, which will be referred to in some of the following chapters.