The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
The opinion that Probability, instead of being a branch of
the general science of evidence which happens to make much
use of mathematics, _is_ a portion of mathematics, erroneous as
it is, has yet been very disadvantageous to the science in
several ways. Students of Philosophy in general have thence
conceived a prejudice against Probability, which has for the
most part deterred them from examining it. As soon as a
subject comes to be considered 'mathematical' its claims
seem generally, by the mass of readers, to be either on the
one hand scouted or at least courteously rejected, or on the
other to be blindly accepted with all their assumed consequences.
Of impartial and liberal criticism it obtains little
or nothing.
The consequences of this state of things have been, I
think, disastrous to the students themselves of Probability.
No science can safely be abandoned entirely to its own devotees.
Its details of course can only be studied by those who
make it their special occupation, but its general principles
are sure to be cramped if it is not exposed occasionally to
the free criticism of those whose main culture has been of
a more general character. Probability has been very much
abandoned to mathematicians, who as mathematicians have
generally been unwilling to treat it thoroughly. They have
worked out its results, it is true, with wonderful acuteness,
and the greatest ingenuity has been shown in solving various
problems that arose, and deducing subordinate rules. And
this was all that they could in fairness be expected to do.
Any subject which has been discussed by such men as
Laplace and Poisson, and on which they have exhausted all
their powers of analysis, could not fail to be profoundly
treated, so far as it fell within their province. But from this
province the real principles of the science have generally
been excluded, or so meagrely discussed that they had better
have been omitted altogether. Treating the subject as mathematicians
such writers have naturally taken it up at the
point where their mathematics would best come into play,
and that of course has not been at the foundations. In the
works of most writers upon the subject we should search in
vain for anything like a critical discussion of the fundamental
principles upon which its rules rest, the class of
enquiries to which it is most properly applicable, or the
relation it bears to Logic and the general rules of inductive
evidence.
This want of precision as to ultimate principles is perfectly
compatible here, as it is in the departments of Morals
and Politics, with a general agreement on processes and
results. But it is, to say the least, unphilosophical, and
denotes a state of things in which positive error is always
liable to arise whenever the process of controversy forces us
to appeal to the foundations of the science.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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