The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics — John Shaqi
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
11. (III.) There still remains a third, indirect and
mathematical line of proof, which might be offered to establish
the conclusion that the Law of Error is always one and
the same. It may be maintained that the recognized and
universal employment of one and the same method, that
known to mathematicians and astronomers as the Method of
Least Squares, in all manner of different cases with very
satisfactory results, is compatible only with the supposition
that the errors to which that method is applied must be
grouped according to one invariable law. If all 'laws of
error' were not of one and the same type, that is, if the
relative frequency of large and small divergences (such as we
have been speaking of) were not arranged according to one
pattern, how could one method or rule equally suit them all?
In order to preserve a continuity of treatment, some
notice must be taken of this enquiry here, though, as in the
case of the last argument, any thorough discussion of the
subject is impossible at the present stage. For one thing, it
would involve too much employment of mathematics, or at
any rate of mathematical conceptions, to be suitable for the
general plan of this treatise: I have accordingly devoted a
special chapter to the consideration of it.
The main reason, however, against discussing this argument
here, is, that to do so would involve the anticipation of
a totally different side of the science of Probability from that
hitherto treated of. This must be especially insisted upon, as
the neglect of it involves much confusion and some error.
During these earlier chapters we have been entirely occupied
with laying what may be called the physical foundations of
Probability. We have done nothing else than establish, in one
way or another, the existence of certain groups or arrangements
of things which are found to present themselves in
nature; we have endeavoured to explain how they come to
pass, and we have illustrated their principal characteristics.
But these are merely the foundations of Inference, we have
not yet said a word upon the logical processes which are to
be erected upon these foundations. We have not therefore
entered yet upon the _logic_ of chance.
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