The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics — John Shaqi
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
13. So much then for the attempt to prove the prevalence,
in all cases, of this particular law of divergence. The
next point in Quetelet's treatment of the subject which deserves
attention as erroneous or confusing, is the doctrine maintained
by him and others as to the existence of what he terms a _type_
in the groups of things in question. This is a not unnatural
consequence from some of the data and conclusions of the
last few paragraphs. Refer back to two of the three classes
of things already mentioned in §4. If it really were the case
that in arranging in order a series of incorrect observations
or attempts of our own, and a collection of natural objects
belonging to some one and the same species or class, we found
that the law of their divergence was in each case identical in
the long run, we should be naturally disposed to apply the
same expression 'Law of Error' to both instances alike,
though in strictness it could only be appropriate to the
former. When we perform an operation ourselves with a
clear consciousness of what we are aiming at, we may quite
correctly speak of every deviation from this as being an
error; but when Nature presents us with a group of objects
of any kind, it is using a rather bold metaphor to speak in
this case also of a law of error, as if she had been aiming at
something all the time, and had like the rest of us missed
her mark more or less in almost every instance.[13]
Suppose we make a long succession of attempts to measure
accurately the precise height of a man, we should from one
cause or another seldom or never succeed in doing so with
absolute accuracy. But we have no right to assume that these
imperfect measurements of ours would be found so to deviate
according to one particular law of error as to present the
precise counterpart of a series of actual heights of _different_
men, supposing that these latter were assigned with absolute
precision. What might be the actual law of error in a series
of direct measurements of any given magnitude could hardly
be asserted beforehand, and probably the attempt to determine
it by experience has not been made sufficiently often to
enable us to ascertain it; but upon general grounds it seems
by no means certain that it would follow the so-called exponential
law. Be this however as it may, it is rather a
licence of language to talk as if nature had been at work in
the same way as one of us; aiming (ineffectually for the most
part) at a given result, that is at producing a man endowed
with a certain stature, proportions, and so on, who might
therefore be regarded as the typical man.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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