The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Similarly in any other example in which one of the
magnitudes is unlimited. Suppose I fling a stick at random
in a horizontal plane against a row of iron railings and
inquire for the chance of its passing through without touching
them. The problem bears some analogy to that of the
chessmen, and so far as the motion of translation of the
stick is concerned (if we begin with this) it presents no
difficulty. But as regards the rotation it is otherwise. For
any assigned linear velocity there is a certain angular velocity
_below_ which the stick may pass through without contact,
but _above_ which it cannot. And inasmuch as the former
range is limited and the latter is unlimited, we encounter
the same impossibility as before in endeavouring to conceive
a uniform distribution. Of course we might evade this
particular difficulty by beginning with an estimate of the
angular velocity, when we should have to repeat what has
just been said, mutatis mutandis, in reference to the linear
velocity.
7. I am of course aware that there are a variety of
problems current which seem to conflict with what has just
been said, but they will all submit to explanation. For instance;
What is the chance that three straight lines, taken
or drawn at random, shall be of such lengths as will admit of
their forming a triangle? There are two ways in which we
may regard the problem. We may, for one thing, start with
the assumption of three lines not greater than a certain
length n, and then determine towards what limit the chance
tends as n increases unceasingly. Or, we may maintain that
the question is merely one of _relative proportion_ of the three
lines. We may then start with any magnitude we please to
represent one of the lines (for simplicity, say, the longest of
them), and consider that all possible shapes of a triangle
will be represented by varying the lengths of the other two.
In either case we get a definite result without need to make
an attempt to conceive any random selection from the infinity
of possible length.
So in what is called the "three-point problem":--Three
points in space are selected at random; find the chance of
their forming an acute-angled triangle. What is done is to
start with a closed volume,--say a sphere, from its superior
simplicity,--find the chance (on the assumption of uniform
distribution within this volume); and then conceive the continual
enlargement without limit of this sphere. So regarded
the problem is perfectly consistent and intelligible, though I
fail to see why it should be termed a random selection _in
space_ rather than in a sphere. Of course if we started with
a different volume, say a cube, we should get a different
result; and it is therefore contended (e.g. by Mr Crofton in
the _Educational Times_, as already referred to) that infinite
space is more naturally and appropriately regarded as tended
towards by the enlargement of a sphere than by that of a
cube or any other figure.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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