The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
Again: A group of integers is taken at random; show
that the number thus taken is more likely to be odd than
even. What we do in answering this is to start with any
finite number n, and show that of all the possible combinations
which can be made within this range there are
more odd than even. Since this is true irrespective of the
magnitude of n, we are apt to speak as if we could conceive
the selection being made at random from the true infinity
contemplated in numeration.
8. Where these conditions cannot be secured then it
seems to me that the attempt to assign any finite value to
the probability fails. For instance, in the following problem,
proposed by Mr J. M. Wilson, "Three straight lines are
drawn at random on an infinite plane, and a fourth line is
drawn at random to intersect them: find the probability of
its passing through the triangle formed by the other three"
(_Ed. Times_, Reprint, Vol. V. p. 82), he offers the following
solution: "Of the four lines, two must and two must not pass
within the triangle formed by the remaining three. Since
all are drawn at random, the chance that the last drawn
should pass through the triangle formed by the other three
is consequently 1/2."
I quote this solution because it seems to me to illustrate
the difficulty to which I want to call attention. As the
problem is worded, a triangle is supposed to be assigned by
three straight lines. However large it may be, its size bears
no finite ratio whatever to the indefinitely larger area outside
it; and, so far as I can put any intelligible construction
on the supposition, the chance of drawing a fourth random
line which should happen to intersect this finite area must
be reckoned as zero. The problem Mr Wilson has solved
seems to me to be a quite different one, viz. "Given four
intersecting straight lines, find the chance that we should,
at random, select one that passes through the triangle formed
by the other three."
The same difficulty seems to me to turn up in most other
attempts to apply this conception of randomness to real
infinity. The following seems an exact analogue of the
above problem:--A number is selected at random, find the
chance that another number selected at random shall be
greater than the former;--the answer surely must be that
the chance is unity, viz. certainty, because the range above
any assigned number is infinitely greater than that below it.
Or, expressed in the only language in which I can understand
the term 'infinity', what I mean is this. If the first
number be m and I am restricted to selecting up to n
(n > m) then the chance of exceeding m is n - m : n; if I
am restricted to 2n then it is 2n - m : 2n and so on. That
is, however large n and m may be the expression is always
intelligible; but, _m being chosen first_, n may be made as
much larger than m as we please: i.e. the chance may be
made to approach as near to unity as we please.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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