The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to StatisticsVenn, John
Philosophy
The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition: An Essay on the Foundations and Province of the Theory of Probability, With Especial Reference to Its Logical Bearings and Its Application to Moral and Social Science and to Statistics
Venn, John
Chance; Logic, Symbolic and mathematical; Probabilities; Science -- Methodology
15. The best way perhaps of illustrating the truly
random character of such a row of figures is by appealing to
graphical aid. It is not easy here, any more than in ordinary
statistics, to grasp the import of mere figures; whereas the
arrangement of groups of points or lines is much more
readily seized. The eye is very quick in detecting any
symptoms of regularity in the arrangement, or any tendency
to denser aggregation in one direction than in another.
How then are we to dispose our figures so as to force them
to display their true character? I should suggest that we
set about _drawing a line at random_; and, since we cannot
trust our own unaided efforts to do this, that we rely upon
the help of such a table of figures to do it for us, and then
examine with what sort of efficiency they can perform the
task. The problem of drawing _straight_ lines at random,
under various limitations of direction or intersection, is
familiar enough, but I do not know that any one has suggested
the drawing of a line whose shape as well as position
shall be of a purely random character. For simplicity we
suppose the line to be confined to a plane.
The definition of such a line does not seem to involve
any particular difficulty. Phrased in accordance with the
ordinary language we should describe it as the path (i.e. any
path) traced out by a point which at every moment is as
likely to move in any one direction as in any other. That
we could not ourselves draw such a line, and that we could
not get it traced by any physical agency, is certain. The
mere inertia of any moving body will always give it a
tendency, however slight, to go on in a straight line at each
moment, instead of being instantly responsive to instantaneously
varying dictates as to its direction of motion. Nor can
we conceive or picture such a line in its ultimate or ideal condition.
But it is easy to give a graphical approximation to it,
and it is easy also to show how this approximation may be
carried on as far as we please towards the ideal in question.
We may proceed as follows. Take a sheet of the ordinary
ruled paper prepared for the graphical exposition of curves.
Select as our starting point the intersection of two of these
lines, and consider the eight 'points of the compass' indicated
by these lines and the bisections of the contained
right angles.[5] For suggesting the random selection amongst
these directions let them be numbered from 0 to 7, and
let us say that a line measured due 'north' shall be designated
by the figure 0, 'north-east' by 1, and so on. The
selection amongst these numbers, and therefore directions, at
every corner, might be handed over to a die with eight faces;
but for the purpose of the illustration in view we select the
digits 0 to 7 as they present themselves in the calculated
value of π. The sort of path along which we should
travel by a series of such steps thus taken at random
may be readily conceived; it is given at the end of this
chapter.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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