This much rests on the assumption that Germany and her allied neighbours are going to make peace without defeat and without victory. If they should be able to carry off a triumph, which now seems impossible, it would not be hard to tell in what manner unification would come. However the result, the separateness of European states will probably be diminished, and their interdependence, either in two large groupings or in some more or less strong general grouping, will be increased. No wise man will undertake to say which form of interdependence will be the result. But it seems certain that we stand today with two roads before us, each leading to the same end, a stronger degree of unity. One goes by way of German domination, the other by way of equal and mutual agreement. I do not need to say which will be pleasanter to those who travel. We cannot stand at the crossing forever: some day we shall pass down one of the roads. It is said that the world is not yet ready to choose the second road, and that it must go on in the old way, fighting off attempts at domination, until it learns the advantages of co-operation. It may be so; but meanwhile it is a glorious privilege to strike a blow, however weak, in behalf of reason. CONTENTS PAGE INTRODUCTION ix CHAPTER I THE QUESTION OF PERMANENT PEACE 1 II EARLY ADVOCATES OF UNIVERSAL PEACE 23 III PROBLEMS OF THE NAPOLEONIC WARS 43 IV EUROPE UNDER THE CONCERT OF THE POWERS 65 V THE LATER PHASES OF THE CONCERT OF EUROPE 83 VI THE BALKAN STATES 103 VII GERMAN IDEALS AND ORGANIZATION 132 VIII THE FAILURE OF THE OLD EUROPEAN SYSTEM 154 IX IF THE SUBMARINES FAIL 184 X OBSTACLES TO AN ENDURING PEACE 205 XI ARGUMENTS FOR A FEDERATION OF STATES 229 XII A FEDERATION OF NATIONS 254 THE LOST FRUITS OF WATERLOO CHAPTER I THE QUESTION OF PERMANENT PEACE