When we remember how our lives depend on a certain circulation in
the sun, of which the spots appear to be special examples, it is of
interest not only to study the forms within them, as we have already
been doing here, but to ask whether the spots themselves are present
as much one year as another. The sun sometimes has numerous spots on
it, and sometimes none at all; but it does not seem to have occurred to
any one to see whether they had any regular period for coming or going,
till Schwabe, a magistrate in a little German town, who happened to
have a small telescope and a good deal of leisure, began for his own
amusement to note their number every day. He commenced in 1826, and
with German patience observed daily for forty years. He first found
that the spots grew more numerous in 1830, when there was no single
day without one; then the number declined very rapidly, till in 1833
they were about gone; then they increased in number again till 1838,
then again declined; and so on, till it became evident that sun-spots
do not come and go by chance, but run through a cycle of growth and
disappearance, on the average about once in every eleven years. While
amusing himself with his telescope, an important sequence in Nature had
thus been added to our knowledge by the obscure Hofrath Schwabe, who
indeed compares himself to Saul, going out to seek his father’s asses
and finding a kingdom. Old records made before Schwabe’s time have
since been hunted up, so that we have a fairly connected history of the
sun’s surface for nearly a hundred and fifty years; and the years when
spots will be plentiful or rare can now be often predicted from seeing
what has been in the past. Thus I may venture to say that the spots, so
frequent in 1885, will have probably nearly disappeared in 1888, and
will be probably very plentiful in 1894. I do not know at all why this
is likely to happen; I only know that it has repeatedly happened at
corresponding periods in the past.
“Now,” it may be asked, “have these things any connection with weather
changes, and is it of any practical advantage to know if they have?”
Would it be, it may be answered, of any practical interest to a
merchant in bread-stuffs to have private information of a reliable
character that crops the world over would be fine in 1888 and fail in
1894? The exclusive possession of such knowledge might plainly bring
“wealth beyond the dreams of avarice” to the user; or, to ascend
from the lower ground of personal interest to the higher aims of
philanthropy and science, could we predict the harvests, we should
be armed with a knowledge that might provide against coming years of
famine, and make life distinctly happier and easier to hundreds of
millions of toilers on the earth’s surface.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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