“But can we predict?” We certainly cannot till we have, at any rate,
first shown that there is a connection between sun-spots and the
weather. Since we know nothing of the ultimate causes involved, we can
only at present, as I say, collect records of the changes there, and
compare them with others of the changes here, to see if there is any
significant coincidence. To avoid columns of figures, and yet to enable
the reader to judge for himself in some degree of the evidence, I will
give the results of some of these records represented graphically by
curves, like those which he may perhaps remember to have seen used to
show the fluctuations in the value of gold and grain, or of stocks in
the stock-market. It is only fair to say that mathematicians used this
method long before it was ever heard of by business men, and that the
stockbrokers borrowed it from the astronomers, and not the astronomers
from them.
In Fig. 48, from Carrington’s work, each horizontal space represents
ten years of time, and the figures in the upper part represent the
fluctuations of the sun-spot curve. In the middle curve, variations
in vertical distances correspond to differences in the distance from
the sun of the planet Jupiter, the possibility of whose influence
on sun-spot periods can thus be examined. In the third and lowest,
suggested by Sir William Herschel, the figures at the side are
proportional to the price of wheat in the English market, rising when
wheat ruled high, falling when it was cheap. In all three curves
one-tenth of a horizontal spacing along the top or bottom corresponds
to one year; and in this way we have at a glance the condensed result
of observations and statistics for sixty years, which otherwise stated
would fill volumes. The result is instructive in more ways than one.
The variations of Jupiter’s distance certainly do present a striking
coincidence with the changes in spot frequency, and this may indicate
a real connection between the phenomena; but before we decide that
it does so, we must remember that the number of cycles of change
presented by the possible combination of planetary periods is all but
infinite. Thus we might safely undertake, with study enough, to find a
curve, depending solely on certain planetary configurations, which yet
would represent with quite striking agreement for a time the rise and
fall in any given railroad stock, the relative numbers of Democratic
and Republican congressmen from year to year, or anything else with
which the heavenly bodies have in reality as little to do. The third
curve (meant by the price of wheat to test the possible influence of
sun-spots on years of good or bad harvests) is not open to the last
objection, but involves a fallacy of another kind. In fact the price
of wheat depends on many things quite apart from the operations of
Nature,--on wars and legislation, for instance; and here the great
rise in the first years of the century is as clearly connected with the
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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