great continental wars of the first Napoleon, which shut up foreign
ports, as the sudden fall about 1815, the year of Waterloo, is with
the subsequent peace. Meanwhile an immense amount of labor has been
spent in making tables of the weather, and of almost every conceivable
earthly phenomenon which may be supposed to have a similar periodic
character, with very doubtful success, nearly every one having brought
out some result which might be plausible if it stood alone, but which
is apt to be contradicted by the others. For instance, Mr. Stone,
at the Cape of Good Hope, and Dr. Gould, in South America, consider
that the observations taken at those places show a little diminution
of the earth’s temperature (amounting to one or two degrees) at a
sun-spot maximum. Mr. Chambers concludes, from twenty-eight years’
observations, that the hottest are those of most sun-spots. So each of
these contradicts the other. Then we have Gelinck, who, from a study of
numerous observations, concludes that all are wrong together, and that
there is really no change in either way.
[Illustration: FIG. 49.--SUN-SPOT OF NOV. 16, 1882, AND EARTH.]
I might go on citing names with no better result. One observer
tabulates observations of terrestrial temperature, or rain-fall, or
barometer, or ozone; another, the visitations of Asiatic cholera; while
still another (the late Professor Jevons) tabulates commercial crises
with the serious attempt to find a connection between the sun-spots and
business panics. Of making such cycles there is no end, and much study
of them would be a weariness I will not inflict.
[Illustration: FIG. 50.--GREENWICH RECORD OF DISTURBANCE OF MAGNETIC
NEEDLE, NOV. 16 AND 17, 1882.]
Our own conclusion is, that from such investigations of terrestrial
changes nothing is yet certainly known with regard to the influence
of sun-spots on the weather. There is, however, quite another way;
that is, to measure their effect at the origin in the sun itself.
The sun-spot is cooler than the rest of the surface, and it might be
thought that when there are many the sun would give less heat. As far
as the spots themselves are concerned, this is so, but in a very small
degree. I have been able to ascertain how much this deprivation of heat
amounts to, and find it is a real but a most insignificant quantity,
rising to about two-thirds of one degree Fahrenheit every eleven
years. This, it will be remembered, is the direct effect of the spots
considered merely as so many cool patches on the surface, and it does
not imply that when there are most spots the sun will necessarily give
less heat. In fact there may be a compensating action accompanying them
which makes the radiation greater than when they are absent. I will not
enter on a detailed explanation, but only say that in the best judgment
I can form by a good deal of study and direct experiment, there is no
certain evidence that the sun is hotter at one time than at another.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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