The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
The individual who trades or invests in stocks will do well to keep
away from the stock ticker; for the victim of “tickeritis” is no more
capable of reasonable and self-composed action than one who is in the
delirium of typhoid fever. The gyroscopic action of the prices recorded
on the ticker-tape produces a sort of mental intoxication, which
foreshortens the vision by involuntary submissiveness to momentary
influences. It also produces on some minds an effect somewhat similar
to that which one feels after standing for a considerable time intently
watching the water as it flows over Niagara Falls. Dozens of people,
without any suicidal intentions, have been drawn into this current and
dashed on the rocks below. And thousands daily are influenced by the
stock ticker to commit the most fatuous blunders.
[Illustration]
As a camera fails to record a true picture if placed in too close
juxtaposition to the object, so in studying the ticker-tape one is
restricted to a close-up view of conditions, resulting in a distorted
gauge of values; for the figures recorded often mislead and confuse
the attentive observer; in fact it frequently happens that the
price fluctuations result from a wave of hysteria among a coterie
of traders, and bear but little analogy to the true value of the
stocks. To illustrate this point more explicitly, the stock of almost
any conservatively capitalized and well managed concern paying six
dollars annually in dividends has an investment value of from $85 to
$100 a share; but in the ups and downs of the market the stock gets
buffeted about on the exchange in obedience to the varying sentiments
of traders, sometimes selling as low as $50, and at other times as
high as $150, without any change whatever in the company’s earnings,
its prospects, or its management. (These matters will be dealt with a
little farther on, and exemplified by showing their effects upon the
mentalities of various types of speculators.) It does not follow that
one who keeps in touch with the stock market by telephone, or through
the daily papers, will find his path free from thorns and snares; but
he will at least have a more open perspective than one who submits to
the influence of the ticker.
Any intelligent trader may reason out exactly what he ought to do under
certain specific conditions; but in the quickly shifting and uncertain
process of determining values he loses his mental poise; and experience
proves that anyone whose reasoning faculties become confounded is apt
to be affected by some form of hysteria, and will frequently do the
opposite of what he would do under normal conditions.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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