The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
The most copious and the most unreliable financial writers are the
market “tipsters” who write daily letters of advice to an army of
subscribers, and claim to have more or less positive knowledge of
what certain stocks or groups of stocks are going to do marketwise.
They often profess to have definite “inside information,” which any
subscriber may receive at a stated price, ranging anywhere from $10
a month upward. These false financial prophets, who lead a horde of
blind followers, should not be confused with reputable bureaus and
statistical experts who base their opinions and their advice to clients
upon a logical analysis of general conditions.
[Illustration]
Henry Fielding wrote a whole essay to prove that a man can write
more informingly on topics of which he has some knowledge than on
matters that he knows nothing about. He believed also that mankind
is more agreeably entertained by example than by precept; therefore
it is not the purpose of this discourse to teach anybody anything,
unless perchance something may be gained by example or suggestion.
There are four subjects on which advice, however good, is generally
wasted,--politics, stock speculation, religion, and love; for in these
matters grown-ups rarely follow the advice of others, and when they do,
if they profit by it they take all the credit to themselves, whereas if
they lose they always blame the adviser. Such are the inexorable and
universal laws of human nature.
Anyone may relate his own stock market experiences, or those of
others--perhaps to the surprise or enlightenment of his audience. He
may even venture his opinions on the subject; but for anybody to assume
that he can continuously operate an unfailing system of making money
on stock or grain exchanges would be equivalent to asserting that he
could invert the fundamental laws of psychology, or that he could beat
the game at Monte Carlo by scientific methods. Many have tried both, to
their sorrow.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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