The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
Speculators can usually find an abundance of literary food suited
to their particular tastes, as witness the following, issued by a
prominent market forecaster simultaneously with the above: “We wish
you to keep in mind that the biggest speculation yet witnessed in the
present bull market is still to come. Now that the reactionary trend
in the market has been definitely halted, you can look with assurance
for higher prices in many issues in the near future. Continue to pick
up our favorites as outlined in our letters, as we expect them to prove
features.” Most of the “favorites” were then selling at figures far
above their intrinsic worth, and many of them have since fulfilled the
prediction that they would “prove features,” for soon afterwards they
declined anywhere from ten to fifty points.
The active participants in a market that has run a long course in
either direction are wont to become so intoxicated with affluence,
or downcast with adversity--depending on which side they have been
operating--that they give little heed to the matter of interpreting
signs which forecast future events, particularly if these signs
controvert their own opinions. A man driving an automobile at a
sixty-mile-an-hour pace does not stop to read signs by the roadway;
and no more does a trader bother with warnings when a prolonged series
of stock market victories has blurred his vision to everything but
prosperity. As every unfamiliar noise or object tends to aggravate fear
in those who are frightened in the dark, so every concurrent happening
stimulates courage and recklessness in those who become emboldened by
stock market success. Paradoxical though it may seem, many things which
are construed bearishly in a falling market are regarded as bullish in
a rising market; and signs which portend higher prices in the mind of a
bull are equally significant of lower prices to the mind of a bear. In
other words, both bulls and bears often derive their opposing opinions
from the same identical hypothesis. These strange anomalies are not
mere theories, they are attested stock market facts.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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