The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
It is admitted by the most sagacious financiers that the only sure
way of making money trading in the stock market is to get in and out
at opportune times, and to stay out most of the time. As against this
there are numerous ways of losing money. Among these, one method in
particular is quite popular among a class of traders who although too
clever and conservative to buy stocks at “top” prices, have not the
patience to wait for “bottom” prices. When values begin to crumble
after the top has been reached in a bull market there must be a set
of “carriers,” or supports, onto which stocks can be dumped on the
way down. The market does not collapse like a ten-story card house;
it generally goes down gradually for a while, one or two flights at a
time, and finds steadying props every now and then which sustain it
for brief periods. For instance, a certain stock paying $5 a share
annually has been hoisted by degrees from $75 up to $150 a share.
When it descends to $140 a few wise traders who have been impatiently
waiting for a reaction will buy it because it looks cheap at $140
after having sold at $150; then at $130 another lot of traders who are
a little wiser and more patient than the first lot buy it because it
looks much cheaper than it did even at $140; and so on down it finds
these temporary supports, until at length it gets back to $75, or
perhaps lower, where it is accumulated by a few shrewd investors and
bargain hunters whose attention has been attracted to the market by
front page newspaper headlines announcing that the stock market is in a
state of complete prostration. They go on about their business and pay
no particular attention to the market until the price has recovered
to a point where the stock, returning $5 a share, is no longer “paying
its board,” when they sell out at a good profit, and _stay_ out while
the speculators carry it on up as far as they like. When the stock was
at the bottom price those who bought it on a scale from $140 down were
either so overloaded or pessimistic--probably both--that they were
unable to buy more and thus reduce their average to a reasonable cost.
THE STOCK EXCHANGE IS A MONUMENT OF BUSINESS INTEGRITY
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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