The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
When the whole country becomes pervaded with an epidemic of bullishness
the action of speculators is always directed by sentiment rather than
judgment; and a market that is swept along by excited emotions is
always dangerous,--dangerous to go short of and dangerous to be long
of. Hysterical “bulls” care nothing whatever about the earnings or
dividend returns on a stock; the only note to which they attune their
actions is the optimistic slogan, “It’s going up!” and the higher it
goes the more they buy, and the more their ranks are swelled by new
recruits. A herd of stampeded cattle (cows no less than bulls) will
rush blindly into a river, or butt their brains out against stone
walls, trees or other obstructions; they also stampede every critter
that happens along their path; and anyone who has ever witnessed a
panic in a theater or auditorium, or in the stock market, need not be
told that under such circumstances men are but little saner than cattle.
And speaking of sentiment, it is remarkable to what extent the combined
business and financial structures of the country are swayed to and fro
by this giant motive power. Like the biblical wind that bloweth where
it listeth, and man heareth the sound thereof but knoweth not whence it
cometh or whither it goeth, sentiment springs up from comparatively
trifling or unknown sources and after playing its havoc, vanishes as
suddenly and mysteriously as it came. In a bear market a train wreck,
or the death of some financier, or an earthquake in Europe, will put
the market off to the aggregate extent of hundreds of millions; whereas
one of the greatest bull markets in history found its chief impetus in
the most universally devastating war the world has ever known.
THERE IS BUT ONE WAY TO BEAT THE STOCK MARKET; THERE ARE MANY WAYS OF
BEING BEATEN BY IT
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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