The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
to be no imminent danger in such inflation, but when business slackens,
as it always has periodically in the past---- However, the optimists
contend that these problems are too far in the future to worry about.
Furthermore it is not the design of this article to criticise abuses,
or to prognosticate future difficulties that seem likely to grow out
of them. It is true that some of the companies, notwithstanding the
tremendous increase in their capital structures, have not weakened
their resources by increasing their cash disbursements. In 1921 the
stock of the Standard Oil Company of New Jersey was paying $5 a year
in dividends and selling at $124.50 per share. In 1922 it was boosted
up to $250.50 a share on the report that shareholders were to receive
four new shares for one. After this split-up was accomplished and the
authorized common stock increased to 25,000,000 shares,--not dollars,
but _shares_!--more than 20,000,000 of which have been issued, in
addition to $200,000,000 of preferred stock, the same conservative
dividend policy was continued, and the new stock received, and still
receives, only one dollar a share annually in dividends. The market
price of the new stock went down to a fraction below $31, whence it
afterwards recovered to about $46, at which figure it pays a trifle
over 2%, or about one half the net return on U. S. Government bonds;
and the only visible change in the stockholder’s position is that if
he wishes to sell his stock it costs about five times what it did
before; in other words, to buy and sell the equivalent of one hundred
shares of the old stock it now costs $154 in commission and tax--more
than eighteen months’ income on a hundred shares of the present stock.
Possibly there are mathematicians who can figure out some sort of
compensating advantage to the stockholder, but I never could.
* * * * *
To sum up the whole situation in a word, those who would make money
speculating in the stock market should first understand that it
requires as much caution and business acumen as any other money-making
enterprise, plus some knowledge of the psychological handicaps; also
plus the rare faculty of maintaining a complete mastery over one’s
impulses, emotions and ambitions under the most heroic tests of
human endurance. All speculations, and even the most conservative
investments, have some slight element of risk; all lines of business
are more or less a gamble; marriage is a gamble; political preferment
is a gamble; in fact nearly everything in life, including our very
existence, is an uncertainty; yet people are not thereby discouraged
from entering into any and all of these ventures. Those who look only
for certainties have far to search and little to find in this world.
* * * * *
Transcriber’s Notes:
The one footnote has been moved to the end of its chapter.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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