The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
I recall a particular instance, a few years ago, when there were some
tremendous pool operations in the common stock of one of America’s
largest industrial corporations, and after the stock had been bid up
ten or a dozen points it was reported that a “managing director”
of the company had assured one of the pool members that it had been
tacitly agreed among the directors to declare a fifty per cent. stock
dividend at the next board meeting. The public instantly took the bit
in its teeth, and inside of a week the stock advanced fifteen points
more, which doubtless afforded the clique an auspicious occasion for
unloading its holdings, bought at much lower figures. About that
time I happened to be in New York, and while lunching one day with
the chairman of the board of directors at his club he told me that
the matter of a stock dividend had not even been discussed among the
directors, and that in his opinion there was no likelihood of any
change in the dividend policy for at least a year,--which proved to be
true.
PROBLEMS DEFYING PRESENT SOLUTION ARE BETTER DEFERRED TO THE FUTURE
A matter of present and future importance in connection with many
investment and speculative stocks, involving as it does questions on
which there is a wide diversity of opinion, is the modern practice of
increasing the outstanding shares of corporations by splitting them up
into fractions, or by declaring liberal stock dividends. Many of the
large companies have recently doubled and quadrupled their shares, and
some have issued as high as nine new shares for one, on somewhat the
same principle as the Government will issue ten one dollar notes in
exchange for a ten dollar bill. And in several instances the fractional
shares have been split a second, and even a third time. In past years
when there were only a few listed securities it was possible for any
well informed person in financial circles to tell the par value and
the approximate book value of all the leading stocks, but the good
old-fashioned methods are no longer in vogue; there are now 1,045
stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange alone, representing almost
every imaginable industry, from steam locomotives to lunch counters,
and under the new capital readjustment process it takes a professional
statistician to keep up with the changes and determine what stocks are
actually worth. But whatever their value may be, it is at least certain
that there is not enough money in the world to cash them all in at
anywhere near their present market price. Nowadays it is not unusual
for industrial companies to have from five to ten million or more
shares outstanding. The lately devised and much over-worked practice of
splitting stocks up into small fractions, avowedly for the convenience
of traders, savors strongly of the old worn-out custom of “baiting” the
public with low-priced issues, ranging from $1 a share upward. As long
as we are riding on the crest of the wave of prosperity there appears
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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