The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactionsHarper, Henry Howard
Science
The psychology of speculation : $b The human element in stock market transactions
Harper, Henry Howard
Speculation; Stock exchanges
When the American Hide and Leather Company was formed a number of years
ago, a prominent Boston leather merchant of my acquaintance, sold
his business to the new organization for a round million dollars in
preferred stock and bonds, and in the course of the next few years of
more or less restless inoccupation he devoted himself to a systematic
study of investment securities and general stock market conditions. The
panic of 1907, when values were almost entirely lost sight of in the
mad scramble to liquidate stocks, afforded a rare opportunity to view
the follies of reckless speculation, and our astute leather merchant
was quick to observe the importance of this salutary lesson. The
recovery that followed was almost magical, and many who bought stocks
at the low prices doubled their money in a few months. Then following
this sharp recovery there was the natural setback when speculators
undertook to convert their new wealth into cash. And this too proved a
wholesome lesson to our new apprentice in the game of high finance. For
some years he had held to the conservative practice of investing only
in non-speculative bonds, but this proved to be a slow and monotonous
process of enlarging his fortune; furthermore it was devoid of the
exciting thrills experienced by those who make fortunes overnight. He
thought the funds of widows and orphans ought properly to be invested
in gilt edge bonds and mortgages, but for a man of his business
sagacity, in the prime of life, to content himself with merely cashing
his coupons every six months was to decline into a state of innocuous
desuetude--a condition into which he was determined not to retrograde.
To launch one’s bark into the rapidly shifting currents of fortune in
the stock market and attempt to steer an even course is one of the
surest preventives of _ennui_, and after deliberately weighing and
analysing conditions from every conceivable angle our erstwhile leather
merchant concluded that cutting a few coupons now and then was too
tame an occupation for a man of his acumen and ambition. He informed
his friends that after years of careful study of the “game,” he was
convinced that the reason why people lost, was that while in theory
they all had the right ideas, they all used wrong formulas in practice.
He declared that the “public,” so-called, always “bought at the top and
sold at the bottom”--a commonplace in stock market parlance, though not
necessarily true. Also that the inclination of all speculators is to
venture out beyond their depth, i. e., to buy more stocks than they
can pay for, or protect by ample margin. This indiscretion he thought
to be especially characteristic of those with but small capital, whose
eagerness for large gains outstripped their conservatism and exposed
them to the perils of abrupt and unexpected reactions and panics. He
had never bought more hides and leather than he could pay for, either
with his own funds or with money easily borrowed from banks; he would
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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