The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
against him, at least one-half of which he never sees at all until, like
the sunken snag, which sinks the steamer without any warning, one or
other of them wrecks his fortunes before he is aware of his danger.
A speculative operator has a very dangerous basis upon which to lay the
foundations of the argument by which he endeavours to justify himself,
and it is this. He says to himself: “there are only two ways for a price
to move—up and down.” At first sight the chances seem to be as much in
his favour as against, and he thinks the failure of others to make a
profit must have been the result of mistakes made by them, which he will
avoid. But does it occur to such an one that if there were any easy and
certain method of making money by speculating in stocks everybody who had
a little capital would at once commence to speculate? Speculation in the
Stock markets has almost irresistible attractions as a mere amusement,
quite apart from its being a kind of occupation which is the most
luxurious and exciting mode of making money. It must be evident therefore
from the comparatively few persons who habitually speculate, that large
numbers are simply driven away from the markets through a conviction
that such a vocation must end in disaster. The dangers of Stock Exchange
speculation are made apparent when, as a species of gambling, it is
compared with the games of chance, whose evil effects upon the community
have been at last recognised by the abolition of the tables at Hombourg,
Ems, Baden Baden, &c. The conductors of the Bank at the Palais Royal were
fully alive to the necessity of limiting the stakes, and also as regards
the number of persons with whom they would play at once. Governments
are stepping in by degrees to suppress gaming houses, and it would have
been more to the credit of Germany if the tables at the above-mentioned
places had been done away with while the effects of the golden stream
from beyond the Rhine were as yet unfelt by the comparatively poor
exchequer at Berlin. The interference of a government is shown again by
our own legislature having declared that A should not insure the life
of B, unless it can be shown that A has some pecuniary interest in B’s
continuing to live. The law, however, is for the most part evaded. Such
systems are therefore looked upon as bad; but because it is difficult
for governments to define in Stock Exchange gambling where _bona fide_
business ends and the gambling begins, the most injurious of all games of
chance is played year after year upon an increasing scale. At the first
beginning of prosperity with a comparatively poor community, gambling
springs up in these times in stocks and shares. As a result of such
operations Vienna went half mad in the first half of 1873, which was
followed shortly after by a financial crash and the suicides of certain
bankers at Posen. Older communities, which have passed through the only
crucible which in this life teaches people that if money is to be
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