The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation — John Shaqi
The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
made rapidly the process must be attended with a proportionately large
risk, are observed, as time goes on, to be less exposed to the headlong
financial panics such as that in which the speculation at Vienna lately
culminated. Commercial revulsions of one sort or another, and of greater
or less violence, will probably occur during all time at intervals,
wherever commerce is carried on, but the gradual fashioning of laws
with the view to confine the injurious effects of over-speculation and
over-trading within limited areas, as for instance the limited liability
acts, will more and more render it possible to stand between the dupe and
the financial sharper, and also to observe the gathering together for
harm of the dangerous influences, so that they may be provided against in
time, or checked at an early stage of the disease. Among the operators at
younger commercial centres there is a more feverish desire to gain, but
the efforts to satisfy it are not kept in check in the same degree as in
places where memories of disaster cluster in traditions among the people,
and inspire the growth of prudence, almost as if it were an instinct.
Farther on we shall call attention to the way in which an outside
speculator on the Stock markets is handicapped with turns, commissions,
and contangoes.[5]
Very few persons, if any, will be found to dispute the statement that
speculation on the Stock Exchange is gambling. The highest mathematical
authorities maintain that there are but two conditions under which
gambling can be prudently followed as an amusement, viz.: small stakes,
and equal play.
The ordinary gambler in the Stock market is no better off, as regards
his chance of winning, than a player against a bank, which can only make
certain of winning against all comers in the long run by the protection
of a mathematical advantage. In the case of a bank established as a
gaming-house the initial condition of existence has always been in the
long run either bankruptcy to itself, or ruin to the individual players.
As the banks have always flourished, the players, in the long run, must
always have been losers.
A gaming-bank is an institution with limited means offering to play all
who enter; or, in other words, it is limited means against unlimited
means.
The Stock Exchange occupies a parallel position to that of the bank, and
the operators[6] in the markets are protected in such a way that the
outside player at speculation must in the long run lose, or no one would
be found to take up his challenge. It must be obvious that supposing
an outside speculator had any advantage when speculation in stocks and
shares were first practised, and through such an inequality of terms he
was on the average the gainer, experience would soon show the necessity
of rectifying such a state of things, and what would be tantamount to
the mathematical advantage secured to the gaming-bank would be speedily
arrayed against him.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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