The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
It must stand to reason that an outside speculator plays upon unequal
terms, otherwise it could not be worth the while of the other side to
engage him. As well might we expect a man to set up a shop and sell his
goods at a loss. Then we come a step farther, and ask if it be any use
for a Stock Exchange speculator to operate if the terms be equal? If
such numbers of persons find themselves induced, by the estimate they
are enabled to form of the chances in their favor, to play on terms more
favourable to their antagonists than to themselves, their prospects
would seem to be much improved if the terms were made equal. Although
the position of the speculator be improved to the extent of the terms
being equal, it is absolutely indispensable that the operations be kept
open for a considerable time[8] in order to secure the mathematical
expectation which can have no existence except through continuity. With
the play in favour of the gambler, he stands no chance even of holding
his own, unless he makes sure of being able to continue over such a
number of trials, or during such a period of time, as will give him the
benefit of an average of the ups as well as the downs of fortune.
As at cards so at Stock Exchange speculation, there must be two kinds
of luck, ill-luck and good-luck, as the changes of fortune which are
worth while taking account of. A man speculates, gets his turn of good
luck and pockets his gain, treating the money as if it were ore from a
mine, or something added to the realized wealth of the world, a pure
plus as compared with a plus leaving a minus. For every profit made by a
speculator, and for every realized profit made by a _bona fide_ investor,
there must be a corresponding loss. The man who in his turn is a winner,
must also in his turn be a loser, and what he was plus when he won, he
must be minus when he loses.
If the manager of gaming-tables secures to himself a mathematical
advantage only sufficient to cover the expenses, he will infallibly be
ruined at last. It may be in one year or in five, or ten, but ruined he
must be. But he provides adequately against this, and in the long run
those who play with him must be ruined. So it is with Stock Exchange
speculators.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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