The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
A bear is a speculator who hopes to gain by the reverse operation. He
sells for the settlement, hoping to buy back at a cheaper price, and gain
by the difference.
[Sidenote: CONTANGO.]
Contango[11] means continuation charge; for instance: if a bull operator
has £2,000 Brighton railway stock open for the account, of which there
are two in a month, one in the middle and one at the end, and the
settlement which is to take place, say in the middle of the month, is
approaching without the price having advanced as much as he supposed it
would at the time when he bought, he wishes to carry over or keep the
stock open for another fortnight. For this accommodation he must pay the
jobber in the House of whom the stock has been bought, a certain rate per
cent. to allow the speculator to continue a bull of the stock, instead
of paying the money and taking it off the market. The contango rates
depend upon different circumstances. Sometimes, instead of having to pay
any contango, a bull will get something paid to him. If the stock is
very scarce, and the jobber finds it difficult to deliver to purchasers,
he will be glad to carry over a bull account for nothing, and may be he
will pay a consideration to postpone delivery for a fortnight.[12] On
the other hand, if the stock is very plentiful when the settling day
arrives, if the sellers have been numerous, and the deliveries are large,
the jobber will prefer delivering the stock to the bull speculator to
continuing it to the next account, because he wants money to pay those
who have sent their stock to market. Under these circumstances the
contango rate may be ¼ per cent. on the money price of £20,000 nominal
stock for the fortnight, or it may reach a much higher figure, even
exceeding one per cent. for the fortnight, but such a rate is seldom
charged.
The contango rates depend very much upon the state of the money market,
and hence the fluctuation in the price of public securities in sympathy
with the rise and fall in the value of money.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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