The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
It has become more of a custom with bankers to lend money to the Stock
Exchange than was the case formerly; one reason being that, through the
more enlightened management of the Bank of England of late years, the
changes in the rate of discount are made more in obedience to the varying
condition of the money market as a whole, as reflected in the Bank
return, than was the case in former years, when the directors would come
down to the City some Thursday afternoon to put up their terms when there
was very little available money left upon which to obtain the increased
charge. In other words, the value of money changes more frequently
than it used to, and bankers, desiring to act at all times in view of
contingencies, find it very convenient to lend their surplus balances
for a fortnight upon easily convertible securities with a good margin.
Moreover the risks attending bills of exchange are avoided. The contango
rates at the settlement may rise suddenly through unexpected demands
upon bankers arising out of a bullion drain, and a fall in the foreign
exchanges, which compels them to refuse to continue their loans upon
stock. Such stock must then be turned out upon the market, and, if there
happen simultaneously to be more deliveries than there is stock taken off
the market, the contango rates will rule high.
It may be here observed that the contango charge is an item in the cost
of speculation which the haphazard operator seldom takes into account
at all; yet, if speculation be engaged in upon a large scale, the item
of contango charges may become a formidable one, and, when added to the
commission charged by the broker, takes so much out of the possible
advance in price which may take place in the period of, say, two
accounts, or the space of one month, that it requires no great experience
to show that the game is not worth the candle, taking one operation with
another.
Take a case in point:—A speculator buys £5,000 Turkish 5% ’65 stock at
£50, for which he engages to pay £2,500 on the settling day, which is
the last of the three account days. He pays ⅛ commission to the broker,
or £6 5_s._ When the settlement arrives, we will suppose he has been
very lucky, and has got a rise of ½ per cent. in the price, which is
a good advance for a class of stock which investors do not like, but
nevertheless is speculated in a good deal. How does the account to be
rendered to him stand, with 6 per cent. contango for carrying over the
transaction?
DR.
£ _s._ _d._
5000 Turks. 5% at 50 2500 0 0
Commission ⅛% 6 5 0
Balance 18 15 0
-----------------
2,525 0 0
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