The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation — John Shaqi
The Theory of Stock Exchange SpeculationCrump, Arthur
General
The Theory of Stock Exchange Speculation
Crump, Arthur
Speculation
“Such is the experience which I carried away with me from
amidst the objectionable smells, the unsavoury company, the
malignant gnats, the haggard revelry, and the general moral
squalor of Saxon-les-Bains; and when my wife reproached me,
with triumphant references to her own warnings, for the missing
five pounds, I replied, what I really feel,—though I know I
shall never convince her of it,—that my experience was not
dearly bought. Is it the only case in which the fiction that
we ourselves have _earned_—whether good or evil fortune—forces
itself with absurd tenacity upon us? Luther himself could
hardly have desired a better proof than this of the pranks
which the imagination plays us when dealing with that sense of
merit and demerit, so closely bound up with our human egotism.
We give ourselves credit, and get credit, I suspect, for a vast
deal more both of wisdom and folly in life than we deserve.
Are nine-tenths of the prizes and the blanks of life at all
more ascribable to any fine selective purpose or deficiency
thereof in him who draws them, than my losses, or my friend the
Cantab’s sudden retrieval of his loss? Yet I still look upon
that able and thoughtful youth with a deep sense of respect for
his cleverness in retrieving his losses, and on myself with
a melancholy consciousness that, like ‘Traddles’ in ‘David
Copperfield,’ my native awkwardness of mind must have been the
cause of my very moderate reverses.—I am, Sir, &c.,
“AN INSTRUCTED GAMBLER.”[26]
[Sidenote: THE MISFORTUNE OF EARLY GAINS.]
The greatest misfortune that can happen to the haphazard speculator is
for him to make money the first two or three “accounts.” He will, in
such a case, in the first place believe himself to possess some uncommon
luck, or a shrewdness for selecting a security that was about to move
in the direction he had reckoned upon. The operations of the most stupid
speculator are frequently attended with such results, just as they might
also be on his first essay at pitch-and-toss. Such incipient luck, by
drawing forth the commendations of others, especially of the brokers—who
do not generally err on the side of warning the individual against the
dangers which beset such a path—builds up in him a false estimate of his
powers. Early success associates his mind with the gains and not with the
losses, and the latter are incurred subsequently with a light heart, as
a sort of accident that will be sponged out by the results of the next
throw.
Public-domain text, read in full here on John Shaqi.
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